The weight of water – Finland is a powerhouse in water diplomacy

All living things, from microscopic cyanobacteria to giant blue whales, need water to survive. In many ancient mythologies, water existed even before creation, and humanity has built its civilisations on water for thousands of years – on the Nile, the Ganges or the twin rivers Tigris and Euphrates.

Yet, while water is the giver of life, it’s also a source of conflict: some have too much, while others have too little. The amount of water around the globe is constant, but human activity has altered its natural cycles. The effects of climate change, such as worsening droughts, will further increase conflicts and misery related to water.

Marko Keskinen, professor of water resources management and policy at Aalto University, sums it up: ‘water is politicised and water leaks into politics.’ All around the world, issues related to water are becoming increasingly political. At the same time, water is being used as a political tool to weaken relationships between countries.

Water is politicised

Water knows no borders, and water-related disputes are often the result of three interconnected factors, Keskinen explains. First, shared water resources are important for countries’ livelihoods, such as agriculture. Second, water scarcity — meaning the use exceeds the amount available — and climate change are increasing uncertainty. And finally, the politicisation of water adds another layer of complexity — for example, if a dam is built upstream of a shared waterway, water can become politicised because of uncertainties around the technical process.

‘It’s like having someone’s hand on your throat. Even if they’re not squeezing, it’s a bad feeling,’ Keskinen says.

Keskinen also talks about how water leaks into politics: when countries that share a common body of water have difficult or nonexistent political relationships, water can be used as a political tool.

This is very familiar to Bota Sharipova, a researcher from Kazakhstan who is working on her doctoral thesis at the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands. She has studied trust-building in water diplomacy in collaboration with Keskinen.

‘Experience has shown how important it is to have trust and to have an expectation of goodwill and cooperation from other countries with whom you share transboundary water bodies. But that often isn’t the case in my home region, the Aral Sea basin. So much is dependent on the governance, the regime of the countries — and a lot also depends on the people behind the policies,’ says Sharipova.

Building trust may be slow and difficult, but losing trust can be quick and easy, as the war in Ukraine has shown in relations between Finland and Russia. But water still flows between the countries, and transboundary water cooperation is one of the very few areas where Finland and Russia still have some sort of connection, Keskinen points out. When wielded skillfully, the necessity of effective water diplomacy can make even unlikely international collaborations possible.

Livelihoods at stake

Water’s crucial role as a natural resource is what ultimately makes it strategically and economically valuable. Water disputes are about so much more than water: they’re about political influence, food, energy — the survival of states, communities and people.

It follows that extreme water-related phenomena also impact the global economy, and countries and companies alike are struggling with supply problems caused by water scarcity, among other things.

In the summer of 2023, shipping in Europe was hampered by the drying up of key river routes such as the Rhine; early this year, water shortages in the Panama Canal were pushing cargo ships 13,000 kilometres off route. Consumers have noticed the knock-on effects in the form of empty store shelves and higher prices.

In addition to these clearly visible phenomena, water scarcity also affects the production of goods. Droughts force communities around the world to limit water consumption, which may lead to factory closures or reduced agricultural production, says Professor Katri Kauppi of Aalto’s School of Business, who studies the impact of climate change on logistics and supply chains.

How will political stability be impacted by these economic disruptions? That’s a question the global water community will have to address in due course.

At the heart of water diplomacy

Water resources are generally in the hands of the public sector, so water-related disputes usually involve states. The challenges in resolving these disputes are multiplying as population growth and growing water consumption also increase the risk of conflict.

‘Unfortunately, we live in a world where multilateral agreements — the desire to stick to what has been agreed on — are being eaten away from many corners at the same time. And that brings us to the question of why we’ve moved from border water cooperation to water diplomacy,’ says Keskinen.

In many ways, Finland is in a unique position in water diplomacy, according to Keskinen and Antti Rautavaara, special envoy for water at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who work closely together to ensure that research is put into practice.

Keskinen also mentions Finland’s long-standing work in mediation and the nation’s development of a strong international profile. Among the extensive list of influential people and organisations in this regard are the CMI–Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation, former politician and diplomat Elisabeth Rehn, former President of Finland Tarja Halonen and international NGO Finn Church Aid.

With Finland ‘playing in the big leagues’ in global water diplomacy, Aalto University has an essential role. ‘Aalto’s role in the launch of Finland’s water diplomacy has been absolutely instrumental,’ Rautavaara says.

‘We would hardly have made the same progress without the pioneering work of Marko and Professors Olli Varis and Matti Kummu. We’ve also managed to create very positive momentum, including with different ministries and state leadership,’ Rautavaara continues.

However, the seemingly impossible task of trust-building and creating stability through water diplomacy also requires reliable international partners, and Finland collaborates closely with the Swedish International Water Institute SIWI, the Geneva Water Hub in Switzerland and its offshoot, the Dakar Water Hub in Senegal.

Bound by water

As water scarcity grows as a global challenge, international cooperation and trust are key to addressing it. But Keskinen and Sharibova’s research has shown that trust isn’t just very elusive in water diplomacy; it’s also largely dependent on the actors involved — especially the individuals.

‘This makes each case unique, and that’s also why it’s very difficult to have general results that will be applicable everywhere,’ says Sharipova.

Both Keskinen and Sharipova mention the Sava River in the former Yugoslavia as an excellent example of successful water diplomacy. Relations between Croatia and Serbia were very tense in the 1990s, but the Sava River Commission has helped to build a functional and also non-political cooperation in the region.

While water scarcity will continue to threaten peace and security, Antti Rautavaara points out that water also offers opportunities for cooperation and stability. Keskinen mentions the Middle East, and in particular the disputes between Israel, Palestine and Jordan over the waters of the Jordan River. The war in Gaza may now have dashed hopes for peace, but there too, water, food and energy cooperation have helped improve collaboration and reduce tensions in the past .

‘Water flows from one country to another and tangibly binds them together. When you build technical cooperation around water, you also build different forms of trust — which, at best, will then positively radiate to other kinds of cooperation and create long-term, workable solutions,’ Keskinen concludes.

This article has been published in the Aalto University Magazine issue 34 (issuu.com), September 2024.